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| National |
| Who will become president? |
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by
Mabvuto Banda, 19 May 2004
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18:50:10
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Malawians are May 20 expected to make their choices in a presidential race that has been narrowed down to either Mgwirizano Coalition candidate Gwanda Chakuamba or UDF/Aford/NCD alliance hopeful Bingu Mutharika if recent opinion polls and predictions from political analysts are anything to go by.
The electorate will also be choosing their members of parliament in 191 of the 193 constituencies.
Nixon Khembo, who is head of governance and democracy at the Centre for Social Research, said the poll will be swayed in favour of Chakuamba because of his consistency or Mutharika due to outgoing President Bakili Muluzi’s support.
“Politics is about resources as a means to an end and Mutharika has had a windfall of that coupled by support from outgoing president Bakili Muluzi. Chakuamba is in contention because he has been consistent in his fight against government over several issues,” said Khembo.
He said Chakuamba’s consistency on issues like fighting the open and third term bills, “coupled by the fact that he still commands ground from the two million voters who voted for him in 1999 has made him popular.”
Chancellor College political scientist Boniface Dulani concurred with Khembo saying the race is intrinsically between Chakuamba and Mutharika.
“The reason for this is that Chakuamba’s strength is that he has a clean record and that he draws a lot of support from the Church. Mutharika’s support comes from the benefits of Muluzi’s campaign and resources at his disposal. It is not his academic credentials that will make a difference,” he said.
Dulani also predicted that the battle for the election between the two, will be won in the Southern Region.
“It’s obvious that Chakuamba is getting the North, then share the spoils in the Centre which is likely to be taken over by MCP President John Tembo. Mutharika will also contest fairly well in the Central Region,” he said.
Apart from Mutharika, Chakuamba — who represents seven parties — and Tembo other presidential candidates are vice president Justin Malewezi, who is standing as an independent, and Brown Mpinganjira of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
So far in the four opinion polls published during the run-up to the polls, only Chakuamba and Mutharika seem to have been consistently favoured.
A poll by the Catholic Commission for Justice and Peace (CCJP) and a straw poll by an independent radio station Capital Radio last week put Chakuamba ahead of the pack.
The CCJP poll, which UDF and opposition party NDA dismissed as fake, found Chakuamba leading with 31 percent followed by Mutharika with 29 percent. The Capital Radio straw poll said that out of 350 people interviewed randomly across the country, Chakuamba got 33 percent and followed by NDA president Brown Mpinganjira with 25 percent.
Mutharika came in third position with 18 percent of the votes.
Another poll by Statistical Services, disputed by its own researchers, tipped Mutharika to win by 50.6 percent , followed by MCP president Tembo with 21 percent and then Chakuamba with 14.9 percent.
The first poll conducted by the same organisation four months ago also put Mutharika ahead.
Another factor in the elections has been the impact of religious communities in the outcome of polls. The leading Christian denominations — Catholic and CCAP — which have a combined membership of about 6 million are believed to have endorsed Chakuamba and his running mate Aleke Banda while Muslims have been urged to vote for Mutharika, a Catholic and his running mate Cassim Chilumpha.
Today most people will be voting wary of the many complaints lodged against the Malawi Electoral Commission in the way the whole process has been handled.
The discrepancies of the voter’s roll, abuse of public resources for campaign by the ruling party and controversy over excess ballot papers are issues that have caused dissatisfaction regarding the Malawi Electoral Commission conduct of the electoral process.
On Tuesday the Supreme Court of Appeal found that the Commission erred by failing to handle a complaint about the use of public resources by Muluzi and UDF for campaign.
The Electoral Commission is expected to announce the official results of the elections on Saturday. |
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